Monday, May 13, 2013

Assault Weapons Ban Worked

CHARTS

More Proof the Assault Weapons Ban Worked

JOHN ROMAN

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The "Disconnected Youth" Paradigm

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Disconnected Mothers Need Help in More Than One Way

Everyone agrees that the firearm debate would benefit from better data. In the last few weeks, several new data points have been released. Like much social science, the data show important correlations, but not necessarily causal connections. Thus, generalizing from these data is difficult. Here is what I think you would say about each, if you were trying to be scrupulously objective (which I am).

Let me begin with the most controversial.

Last week, the Bureau of Justice Statistics released a study showing that firearm homicides are way down, as are the number of non-fatal shootings. The report has not gotten much attention, only a handful of articles that are more partisan bickering then news. I’m surprised, because you don’t have to look at the graphic below for very long before a critical relationship becomes obvious; that is, that the period when firearms violence declines the fastest matches almost exactly to the period when the Federal Assault Weapons Ban was in place.

In 1994, when the ban was enacted, there were 17,527 firearm homicides in the United States. In 2004, when the ban expired, there were 11,624. In 2011, after seven years with no assault weapon ban, there were 11,101 firearm homicides, virtually unchanged from 2004. If you adjust for population growth, the change from 2004 to 2011 is slightly bigger: from 2.5 per 100,000 to 2.3 per 100,000.

As always, beware of the logical fallacy: post hoc ergo propter hoc ("before this, because of this"), which is just a fancy way of saying correlation does not equal causation. However, if you back the series out a little bit more in terms of years, you get an even more startling correlation. While we would like to look at firearms-related homicides before 1993, data on whether a homicide was caused by a firearm only go back to 1993. Therefore, we have to rely on homicide alone. But, since the decline in all homicides (my calculation) and the decline in firearms homicides were both 39 percent, it seems a fair assumption that the rate of homicide change approximates the rate of firearm homicide change.

http://www.theatlanticcities.com/politics/2013/05/more-proof-assault-weapons-ban-worked/5578/

I know, I know. Grapefruit

Sunday, May 12, 2013

Happy Mothers Day

Conservative Blogs

Top 10 Must-Read Blogs for Conservatives

Ace of Spades HQ

Edgy, insightful commentary when Ace is at the helm of this sometimes slash and burn pirate ship. It now comes with a number of readers become guest bloggers, enabling you to keep up on most topics for discussion in the political blogosphere on any given day. They'll keep you informed, but make no mistake, for fiery, as well as intelligent political blog posts written with a genius for springing the unexpected belly laugh, or snark, Ace represents that fine edge of the political Right-side blogs, often pushing the limits of blog commentary to where the mainstream media dare not go. It's work-safe, so read it and enjoy it. Just don't tell your mother you're doing it and you should be fine.

Agent Bedhead

She's conservative, but don't tell anyone, she may lose her Hollywood cred. That's right, a now non-political blog making a political blogger's Top Ten. Why? Well, when you're O-bottomed out, Bushed with politics, or feeling like the Gingrinch at Christmas, you need a break. What better way to take it than with a funny, extremely well written and always snarky, sometimes off the wall and flat-out outlandish blog featuring items like beefcake for the ladies, or the latest Hollywood, or sometimes British Rock Star car wreck for clicks and giggles. Or maybe the latest LA face-lift, or implants gone terribly wrong, and more you'll enjoy reading about just for the fun. All politics makes Dan a dull boy and Agent Bed Head has the skillz to lighten the load. (wink) Trust me, I've read her for several years. I know!

American Thinker

A combination of longer more substantive items on a daily basis - almost more columns, than blog posts. The site also now hosts its own pure blog to enjoy. The longer items are usually more sophisticated, or thoughtful, yet accessible for lay readers. They don't rely on one blogger to generate post after post on any given day, which provides time for deeper analysis. They have a rotating list of solid authors, enabling them to tackle an in-depth, as well as informed, view of most every important political news item, or political issue upon which they choose to focus. I do write an item for them occasionally, but not often. What pure blogger with his own blog has the time?

Daily Kos

Okay, why would a conservative blogger suggest one of the largest, most unhinged Lefty blogs out here as one of his Top Ten? Am I really that dedicated to presenting a balanced, or otherwise important point of view? Nah. But there are good reasons for it. There are so many fine, well worth reading conservative blogs out there today, as opposed to 2004 when I started, I've been hard pressed to list only ten, let alone in any order. I've already left out too many good ones and good people to count. But if you want to understand conservative blogs, which I do hope you will consider reading - you must understand the utterly vapid nature and stupidity of the liberals against whom we fight. I would have linked the White House blog. But there's so little honesty coming from that message machine today, it's simply not worth your time.

Instapundit

Glenn Reynolds is a libertarian, not a conservative. But he is the driving force behind the rise and increasing importance of political blogs - and not just for the Conservative Right. As an out-link blog, providing more links, than commentary, his content is eclectic, so it's a quick solid look for anyone throughout the day. His ability to drive, or influence discussion across all political blogs, Left and Right, remains unmatched and makes him a must read.

Memeorandum

It isn't a "blog," it is a meme tracker across different general topic areas. Obviously I follow politics almost exclusively. If you want to know the news headlines tomorrow, or what will make the 6 o'clock news in politics, along with what the largest number of popular political blogs are discussing on any given day, there isn't a better place to start. Many political blogs use this as a must read source these days. From there, you just click a blog, or headline to read. An easy and important add here for me, before I start making more enemies than friends, due to all the terrific political blogs. I'd encourage everyone to surf around. The field has grown tremendously over the years.

Michelle Malkin

I'm not picking no brainers here due to their large readership numbers and success. And I'm not simply listing friends, or what have you. While Glenn was the initiator of sorts, Michelle, more than almost anyone, has taken the form in new directions and on into more established media, too. That's partly due to her existing reputation as a quality author and syndicated columnist. It's another must read, often for reports with depth on certain topics each day. And between her posts and rotating Buzzworthy space on the right side, you'll know what many political blogs are discussing on any given day.

Real Clear Politics

RCP is a sharp looking, easily navigated polished site that allows you to catch up on all of today's important political news - from big media to the blogs. It never fails to offer up something to think, talk, or blog about. And it even lists some top political blog posts of every day. Just surf around. Also, when it's election time, there is currently no comparison between RCP and any other poll aggregation and analysis site. That alone makes it an indispensable site. And it now offers a great deal more.

RedState

More a conservative blog, as opposed to just a Right-leaning, or Republican blog. The special significance of RedState is that it's the blog that Republicans in Washington, D.C. want to be featured on in a positive manner. They occasionally enjoy having their own content posted, as well. Not for everyone, read squishy liberals and softer moderates. It represents the solid Right grassroots conservative movement more than many in some ways. That shouldn't be read that there aren't debates, or even major disagreements among the Right blogs. Most of us are free thinkers and individualists first, with everything else flowing from that. And, yes, I have posting privileges I use occasionally thanks to Editor, Eric Erickson.

The Jawa Report

Yes, there are Hawks on the Right. But they aren't the protected kind. They're interested in the stories and news our noble young men and women at arms are living everyday in Afghanistan and Iraq. And if you want to get your jihad on, or simply keep track of what America's enemies committed to jihad around the world are up to on any given day, Rusty's place is the place on the Right to get the news.

10 Popular Liberal Blogs

Americanblog

Bag News Notes

Crooks and Liars

Daily Kos

Firedoglake

Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

Talking Points Memo

Think Progress

Wonkette

Saturday, May 11, 2013

BUILD AMERICA NOW

BUILD AMERICA NOW

Proposal

Federal Guarantee Municipal Bonds

Infrastructure Stimulus

The Federal government should guarantee municipal bonds to accelerate public works construction. This would encourage local governments to improve needed roads, sewer & water, curbs and sidewalks, schools, and other important infrastructure this year when we need the stimulus. Put America back to work. Build America now!

This is the year for municipalities, school districts, and other governments to build major capital projects. We need the economic stimulus and jobs. Contractor prices are low. They need work, and we need infrastructure improvements. This would be a great way to stimulate our economy.

The goal is to help communities stay vital and not slip into an irreversible decline. Schools and community infrastructure are critical to supporting home values and stemming the declines we have seen in recent years.

Most local governments have a backlog of needed public infrastructure improvements. With support and encouragement from the Federal government, we could have major local programs underway soon.

This should be a very simple and low cost way to stimulate substantial public works expenditures this year.

____________________________

As economic uncertainty continues, corporations cut back on spending and jobs. This is the correct course of action for them - they have to stay solvent to survive.

At the same time, the Federal Government cranks up spending in order to revitalize the economy. Substantial national government spending is required to stimulate the economy. Government acts in an anti cyclical fashion to get the economy growing again. And our Federal Government is spending.

State and local governments, however, often act like private corporations. They, unlike the Federal government, cannot print money. But for many reasons, this is the wrong course of action. Local governments can borrow money at cheap tax exempt rates, and build needed public improvements such as improved roads, schools, and sewer and water systems.

The Federal government should support and encourage local and State government spending. They could do this by guaranteeing bonds and using the bully pulpit of the Presidency to advocate for an aggressive program of local and State government public works expansion efforts.

Strong local governments with AA and better bond ratings have no trouble borrowing money now. But weaker rated governments do have trouble getting good rates. And local governments tend to slow capital spending during recessions. The country needs them to crank up capital spending substantially.

A Federal guarantee would ensure good rates for all municipal and State borrowers. This would be a strong incentive for local governments to borrow and construct needed improvements now.

This stimulus effort by all levels of government is a safe and effective way to get America back to work. Local governments are good at building local public works projects that are needed and worthwhile. They usually do a good job at cost containment. And they seldom default, so the risk to the Federal government is quite low.

Build America Now

buildamericanow.blogspot.com

Peopling of America

The theory that humans first came to the new world from Siberia via a land bridge has long been the conventional wisdom. The closest land connection from the old world to the new was between Siberia and Alaska. During the ice age there was a land connection between the two hemispheres since the sea level was lowered by glaciers as shown by the graphic below. The shaded area on the graphic below shows the land above water during the ice age.

Click to view the source article

This theory has been supported by DNA testing that indicates that most Native Americans are closely related to Asians by MtDNA that is inherited from mother to child, and by Y DNA that is inherited from father to son. The graphic below shows the theoretical movement of people from Asia to the western hemisphere by MtDNA.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_gene_flow_in_and_out_of_Beringia.jpg

The graphic below shows the likely path for the five major MtDNA haplogroups that pass from mother to child. Haplogroups A, B, C, D follow a similar path from the old world to the new. The only surprise here is that Haplogroup X has few links to Asia, with more to the middle east and Europe.

The graphic below shows the distribution of the "Q" Y DNA passed from father to son. The majority of Native Americans are descended from "Q" which is also located in Siberia. The two continents are shown to be interconnected by the graphics below. It is obvious that this came from Asia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_history_of_indigenous_peoples_of_the_Americas

The theory of a Siberian only connection to the human settlement of the western hemisphere has been challenged by a number of individuals who believe that the Clovis stone age technology is similar to the Solutrean stone age technology found in Spain and France. "Across Atlantic Ice" by authors Dennis Stanford and Bruce Bradley presents an interesting theory that people could have traveled by boat along the ice pack that connected Europe and the new world during the ice age. They make their stone tools in a very similar manner and in way much different then those made in Asia. They would have used boating and hunting technologies similar to modern Inuit peoples, hinting seals and fishing and living on the ice.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solutrean_hypothesis

The graphic below below shows the location of MtDNA Haplogroup X passed from mother to child. Note the concentrations in the northeastern part of North America and Europe, West Asia, and North Africa. There is minimal connection to western Asia and Siberia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Haplogroup_X_(mtDNA).PNG

The graphic below shows concentrations of the Male Y DNA R1. Note the concentrations in Europe and central Asia and northeastern north America.

Main article: Haplogroup R1 (Y-DNA)

"The majority of members of haplogroup R belong to its subgroup R1, defined by marker M173. R1 is very common throughoutEurope and western Eurasia in the form of its subclades R1a1a-M17 and R1b1b2-M269.^[11]^[12]

R1 is the second most important haplogroup in Indigenous peoples of the Americas following haplogroup Q, and spreads specially in Algonquian peoples from United States and Canada.^[9]"

^{http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haplogroup_R_(Y-DNA)}

Some people believe that the R1 "Y" Haplogroug and "X" MtDNA came across the land bridge from Siberia with the other native American immigration. But the distance is great across Asia, and the distribution in America makes a European connection more logical.

DNA testing can tell you what your "Y' DNA is from your paternal ancestor, and what your MtDNA is from your maternal ancestor. Many people who thought they had a Native American ancestor have been told that their MtDNA is not Native American, and that they are descended from Europeans.

A new book by geneticist Bryan Sykes, DNA USA, indicates that many Americans in the northeast part of the United States have little or no Native American ancestry, judging from their MtDNA. And Professor Louis Gates has been advising African Americans that the ancestors whom they thought were Native American actually were European.

I think that there must be more Native American DNA in the descendants of early immigrants to the US. There would have been far more men immigrating than women. They reproduced, and I am assured that females are required.

I think that the eastern half of the US must have been settled in ancient times by people from Europe. This can be proved or disproved by DNA taken from pre Columbian remains. If all the MtDNA is A, B, C, D, or X than perhaps the Asian immigration only theory is correct. But I will bet that we will find plenty of European DNA among ancient Native Americans.

It appears likely that human migration into the new world was more complex then the conventional wisdom of a connection only from Asia to America on the land bridge. New DNA research will likely improve our understanding, expecialy if DNA can be obtained from ancient American remains. But the last two graphics certainly support a possible connection via the Atlantic Ocean.

Further information at:

wearetheindians.blogspot.com

High Capacity Magazines and Assault Weapons

Click to Read the Article

Mother Jones Yearlong investigation into gun laws and mass shootings.

Click here for the full view of the data set.

_____________________________________

I spent 32 years in the Marine Corps Reserve including two tours in Vietnam. I know something about weapons.

I support a ban on assault weapons and high capacity magazines. I think it is reasonable for people to have weapons for self defense. But why do you need a magazine with 30 or more rounds? To kill lots of people.

We used 20 round magazines for our M-16's in Vietnam. My father used 8 round clips in his M-1 in World War II. In World War I and II and in Vietnam we used the 1911 .45 Pistol with 7 or 8 rounds.

_____________

Guns are pervasive in America. They are very difficult to control. Gun rights advocates vigorously oppose any restrictions, despite some of the recent mass murders.

Weapons used in the American Revolution took a long time to reload after each single round was fired. A mass killing of numbers of civilians by a lunatic gunman was virtually impossible.

www.11thpa.org/neumann.html

But guns gradually became more accurate and with a much higher rate of fire. We developed revolvers with 5 and 6 round capacities. And then bolt and lever actuated rifles with higher rates of fire. And then finally semi automatic and fully automatic weapons.

We do accept some limitations on guns. We prohibit fully automatic machine guns and grenades, for example. This came about in 1934 when America was aghast at the carnage committed by organized crime with Thompson sub machine guns. It was obvious that the Thompson was good for war, gangland slayings, mass murder and nothing much else. The laws let citizens keep rifles and shotguns and pistols for hunting and self defense.

listvisit.com/top-ten-most-dangerous-guns-in-the-world

In 1934 normal guns were far more limited then they are today. We regulated fully automatic weapons, but did not restrict semi automatic weapons.

A fully automatic weapon continues to fire as long as you keep the trigger pulled. A semi automatic weapon fires one bullet with each trigger pull. The movies make it seem that fully automatic weapon fire is very deadly. It is, but aimed semi automatic fire is also very deadly. In fact, in Vietnam our M-16's were all fully automatic, encouraging the troops to shoot too fast and too wildly. Our M-16's now permit firing in three round bursts - one trigger pull for three rounds.

The weapon above is the M1911 .45 caliber semi automatic pistol, called the 1911 for the year of its beginning. It was used by the US Military in World War I and II and in Korea and Vietnam and helped us win those wars. It is still used by some units in the military. It had a magazine of seven or eight rounds. It was the weapon my father used in World War II and it was the one I used in Vietnam.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1911_pistol

The weapon below is a more modern Glock, a popular pistol. It can be used with 33 round magazines. This number of rounds could be handy in a firefight in a war but are not needed for self defense unless you are a really poor shot and unconcerned about wounding nearby innocent people.

Glock with 33 round magazine

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glock

The weapon above an Ar-15 GL-Shock M4 similar to the M-16 that we used in Vietnam and currently and the M-4, the carbine version of the M-16. We used twenty round magazines in Vietnam - you can get 30 to 50 round magazines now.

50 round magazine for AR 15

Videos:

Civilian versions do not permit full automatic fire. Still, it will shoot as fast as you pull the trigger. A very formidable weapon.

Another facet to the appeal of the assault rifle is that it looks cool and dangerous and is dangerous. That is fine for normal people. But for angry suicidal lunatics Rambo Wannabes it is a formula for disaster.

Do we really want lunatics to have access to these weapons? Do the rights of responsible gun owners trump public safety?

Would gun control opponents agree to any legislation that would restrict them from high capacity magazines?

Let us look at two recent examples. The shootings in Arizona were stopped when the gunman ran out of ammo and had to reload. People were able to jump him and disarm him. Two teachers in Connecticut apparently tried to jump the gunman. But with his high capacity magazines they could not succeed. If either man had had to reload after a few rounds the carnage might have been much less.

Politics is the art of compromise. I advocate that the second amendment and our history supports the rights of civilians to own rifles, pistols, and shotguns for hunting, target practice, and self defense.

And I get the idea that permitting concealed carry by responsible citizens could be a good thing. I support that idea. But it is unlikely that the right person will often be in the right place at the right time.

But I also support the elimination of assault rifles, and the elimination of any magazines over 7 rounds. That permits anyone to hunt and defend themselves, but limits the carnage created when a lunatic finds high capacity weapons.

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Monday, May 13, 2013

More Proof the Assault Weapons Ban Worked

Sunday, May 12, 2013

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Saturday, May 11, 2013

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